Planning a Summer Trip in Uncertain Times

This year, the relaxing summer vacation may feel like it’s impossible. With the expansion of the Iran conflict, hideously long TSA security lines, and gas prices reaching record highs, you may feel tempted to flip open the lawn chairs and staycation this year. 

No one would blame you. 

The trick isn’t to stop traveling, though. The trick is to change how you book your travel to lock in the fun without locking in (or losing) your money.

Here’s how you can plan a high-certainty summer vacation in an uncertain economic and political environment.

Start with protecting your cash

In a year where the headlines change by the hour, your goal isn’t just to find the lowest price—it’s to find the lowest risk. Here is how to book so that your money stays as mobile as you are.

1. Focus on refundability

In 2026, the basic economy savings are a trap because you’re at the mercy of the airline. If the airline cancels, you get your money back (see box), but if you decide the travel situation is too risky or an emergency pops up, you’re out of luck. You locked in your money and gave the airline all the leverage.

If the airline cancels the flight, they owe you a full refund to your original form of payment, even for a Basic Economy ticket. Under Department of Transportation (DOT) rules—which were actually strengthened in late 2024 and 2025—this is an “automatic” right if you choose not to accept their rebooking.

In 2026, airfare comes in three main flavors, and choosing the wrong one is the fastest way to lose your travel budget.

• Basic Economy (The Trap): It’s the lowest price you’ll see. But if the news out of the Middle East makes you want to stay home, or if you just change your mind, you lose 100% of your money. You have zero power to cancel or change your flight on your own.
• Main Cabin (The “Store Credit” Option): Most major airlines have removed change fees for these tickets. This is great for flexibility. If you cancel, you don’t lose the money. The airline keeps it as a travel credit for a future flight. It’s better than losing it, but your cash is still “tethered” to that airline, subject to fairly restrictive rules (see the box).
• Fully Refundable (The Gold Standard): This is the only way to ensure your cash stays in your bank account. If you cancel, the money goes back to your credit card.

The Strategy: In a high-uncertainty year, you may want to consider the fully refundable option. Yes, it might cost more, but in 2026, that is essentially your “escape hatch” fee. It ensures that if the world feels too “on fire” this July, you can pull the plug and have your cash back in 7 days to spend on a nice dinner at home instead.

If you choose the Main Cabin option, you’re essentially trading a cash refund for Airline Store Credit. It’s a great safety net, but you have to know the rules of the game:

• Watch the Clock: Most credits expire one year from the date you purchased the original ticket. If you book a summer trip in January and cancel it in June, you likely only have until next January to use that credit. Don’t let it sit and rot!
• The Name Stays the Same: Unlike a gift card, these credits are almost always locked to your name. You can’t pass them off to a family member, so make sure you’re the one who actually wants to take that ‘make-up’ trip later.

2. Let Google Pay You When Prices Drop

With oil prices fluctuating, airfare is a roller coaster. You don’t want to book today and see a $200 price drop tomorrow. Open Google Flights and look for flights with the price guarantee badge (the colorful shield). Most people see the price guarantee badge and think it’s just marketing, but it’s actually a very specific financial program. Google is basically betting that the price won’t go lower.

Here’s how it works.

1. The “Shield” Badge – You won’t see this on every flight. It only appears when Google’s algorithms are extremely confident that the price is at its absolute lowest point. Look for a small, colorful shield icon next to the price in your search results.

2. You Must Book “On Google” (or via their link) – To qualify, you usually have to be signed into your Google account and follow the “Book on Google” path or the specific link they provide. This allows Google to “tether” your booking to their tracking system.

3. Automatic Monitoring – This is the best part: you don’t have to do anything. Once you book a flight with that shield badge, Google monitors that exact itinerary (same flight number, same dates, same class) every single day until your plane takes off.

4. The $5 Threshold – Google doesn’t cut checks for pennies. The price has to drop by at least $5 for the guarantee to kick in.

5. How You Get Paid – If the price drops, you’ll get an email after your flight takes off.

• The Payout: The money is deposited into your Google Pay account.
• The Catch: You must have the Google Pay app set up to receive the funds.
• The Limit: You can get back up to $500 per year total across all your bookings.

3. The 24-hour safety window

Every flight booked directly with an airline for a trip at least seven days away has a federally mandated 24-hour cancellation window.

• The Action: Book your “dream trip” to lock in the seat, then spend the next 24 hours doing a final gut check with yourself and other travelers in your group.
• The Payoff: If you get cold feet within those 24 hours, you can cancel and get a 100% cash refund, even on a basic economy ticket. It’s the only time the cheap seats are actually refundable. 

You can do this action on repeat as often as you like!

Pro tips for Beating 2026 Price Hikes

While locking in a refundable fare is your best safety net, you still want that fare to be as low as possible. As we head into the peak of the 2026 summer season, here are five expert tactics to keep costs down:

1. Book Summer Now (but target August): Prices are already climbing for June and July. If you have the flexibility, look at late August (or better yet, September to take advantage of shoulder season price slumps). Demand typically dips later in the summer, and you’ll find better rates on all your travel costs than during the mid-summer peak.
2. Use the Date Grid Scan: Before you click buy, use the Google Flights Date Grid. Sometimes shifting your departure by just 24 hours can save you $200. I always scan the grid first, find the best window, and then lock in that refundable ticket.
3. Ditch the Round-Trip Habit: Don’t assume a round-trip ticket is the cheapest path. This year, I’m seeing great results by searching for two one-way flights separately. It often lets you mix airlines (flying Delta out and United back, for example) to find the best times and prices.
4. Check the Alternative Route: Before you settle on a flight into a major hub like London or Lisbon, check nearby secondary airports. Sometimes flying into a smaller city and taking a quick “positioning flight” or a scenic train ride can cut hundreds off your total family travel bill.
5. The Bi-Weekly Reprice: This is my favorite savings tip. Every two weeks, take a minute to re-check the price of the flight you already booked. If you see it has dropped, and you followed my advice to book a flexible or refundable fare, you can rebook at the lower rate and pocket the difference in cash or credit. It takes five minutes and can save you a fortune. Here are the airlines that offer a credit if the price drops.

Choose your destination strategically

Choosing where to go this year is just as important as how you book. While some parts of the globe are experiencing significant tension, other regions offer a peaceful escape with reliable infrastructure. If you want a summer trip that feels like a true vacation and not an exercise in risk management, here are my top recommendations.

Go for Safe Havens: Alaska and Canada

If you want to keep things close to home, our neighbors to the north and our own 49th state are the clear winners. Canada consistently ranks as one of the top five safest countries in the world for 2026, and for good reason. It offers a combination of low crime, high-quality healthcare, and political stability that is hard to beat right now.

• Alaska: This is the year for that bucket-list Alaskan cruise or a rail journey through the interior. With average summer temperatures around 70 degrees, it’s a perfect escape from the extreme heatwaves hitting the lower 48. Places like Anchorage and Juneau offer all the modern comforts you need, while 17 national parks provide the adventure.
• The Canadian Rockies: Think of Banff, Jasper, and Lake Louise. These areas are designed for comfort and accessibility. Whether you’re taking the Rocky Mountaineer train or exploring via a guided small-group tour, you’re in a region where the infrastructure works and the environment is serene.

Pivot to a Cooler Locale

For those who want to cross the ocean, the Nordic countries—Norway, Sweden, Denmark, and Iceland—are the ultimate high-certainty choices. While much of Southern Europe is bracing for 100-degree days and crowded streets, Scandinavia offers the cool-cation trend our readers love.

• Climate and Safety: These countries are perennial leaders on the Global Peace Index. In 2026, Iceland and the Netherlands are topping the lists for traveler security.
• The Experience: Imagine exploring the fjords of Norway under the midnight sun or walking the cobbled, safe streets of Copenhagen. The infrastructure is world-class, public transport is exceptionally reliable, and you won’t find the geopolitical volatility currently impacting other regions. It is the perfect place to dial down the life distractions and find some sweet silence.

Or Select Portugal for Warm Weather

If your idea of a summer vacation involves warm weather and a sunset over the Atlantic rather than a glacier, Portugal is your best bet for this summer. It consistently ranks as one of the safest countries in the world—holding the 7th spot in the 2025/2026 Global Peace Index.

While other Mediterranean hotspots are dealing with overcrowding and heightened regional tensions, Portugal remains a pocket of calm.

• Flight Stability: Routes between the US and Portugal (Lisbon and Porto) are largely unaffected by the current conflict in Iran. Airlines like Delta, United, and American are maintaining normal schedules because the flight paths stay well clear of the disrupted airspace.
• The “Cool-ish” Coastal Relief: While the interior of Portugal can get quite hot in July, the coastal areas, including Lisbon, Cascais, and the Algarve, benefit from steady Atlantic breezes. This makes it much safer and more comfortable for 50+ travelers who want to avoid the 100-degree heat domes that are common in other parts of Europe in the summer.
• Safety Profile: Portugal has a Level 1 travel advisory from the State Department, which is the lowest possible risk level. It is known for its political stability and welcoming culture, making it one of the easiest European countries to navigate.

A standard travel insurance policy might not be as comprehensive as you think. Most policies contain exclusions for events like war, civil unrest and terrorism. This means that if you cancel your trip, or if it is delayed or interrupted due to situations related to war, the insurance company typically won’t pay out.

To have high certainty in 2026, you need to know how to bridge that gap.

The golden ticket coverage

If you want the right to say, “I’m just not comfortable going anymore,” and still get your money back, you need Cancel For Any Reason (CFAR) coverage. It is an optional upgrade, but this year, it is the only true safety net for geopolitical uncertainty.

• What it does: As the name implies, it allows you to cancel for any reason—including fear of war, a bad feeling about the destination, or even just a change of heart.
• The Payout: Unlike standard claims that pay 100%, CFAR typically reimburses 50% to 75% of your non-refundable costs. It’s not a total recovery, but it’s a lot better than losing everything.
• The Strict Deadlines: This is the part most travelers miss. You usually must purchase CFAR within 14 to 21 days of making your very first trip deposit. If you wait until the news gets bad to add it, it’s already too late.

Don’t forget medical coverage

While war is excluded from standard cancellation coverage, there is a silver lining for your health. Most reputable travel medical policies will still cover you if you get sick or injured while abroad, even if a conflict is ongoing (provided you didn’t ignore a formal government evacuation order).

For over 50 travelers, the priority should be Primary Medical Coverage. This means the travel insurance pays the hospital directly, so you aren’t stuck fighting with your domestic provider or paying thousands out of pocket while waiting for a reimbursement.

See my recommendation for the medical coverage amount.